Working Paper 13
How Tight Are Physical Metals Markets? Supply, Demand, Balances, and Inventories Across Six Metals
September 2026
Abstract
The physical side of metals markets is tested against the data for copper, silver, gold, zinc, nickel, and tin, with shorter checks on lead and the platinum-group metals. The verdict is not uniform. Copper\'s 2025 refined market ran a surplus of 380 kt (preliminary, ICSG), even as the concentrate market hit its tightest terms on record: the 2026 term treatment charge benchmark settled at zero. Silver has posted six consecutive annual deficits, but the 2025 deficit was revised from a forecast 117.6 Moz to 40.3 Moz, and exchange stocks remain large enough that stock absorption, not acute scarcity, is the operative mechanism. Gold\'s published supply-demand balance is zero by construction, so no deficit thesis is testable; the price clears through roughly 222,600 tonnes of above-ground stocks. Zinc\'s 2025 balance of minus 33 kt is under 0.3 percent of consumption: close to balanced. Nickel moved from surplus into a forecast 2026 deficit of 32 kt, a forecast that itself moved 293 kt in six months. Tin shows small deficits on the thinnest data of the six.