Working Paper 23
Turkey's Power Market, 2016-2026: Generation Mix, Expansion, and Volatility
October 2026
Abstract
A decade of Turkey's power market, 2016-2026, assembled from TEIAS, EPDK, and EPIAS hourly settlement data. Generation rose 34 percent while capacity grew 57 percent; coal held a third of output, gas fell from 32.5 to 22.3 percent, wind plus solar rose to 22.7 percent. Hydro's weather-driven swings force gas to act as the swing supplier (monthly correlation -0.70). The day-ahead price peaked at 3,851 TRY/MWh in September 2022; 2026 swung fivefold within four months. Regulated tariffs shielded households while industry absorbed the crisis.